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A French trader has placed over $28 million in bets on Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election through four Polymarket accounts, all controlled by the same individual. Despite scrutiny, Polymarket found no evidence of market manipulation, emphasizing that prediction markets reflect event likelihood rather than voter intent. The trader has also wagered over $7 million on Trump winning the popular vote against Kamala Harris, while political betting markets gain prominence in the election cycle.
Kia is set to enter the light commercial vehicle (LCV) market in Europe and the UK with a fully electric lineup, starting with the versatile PV5 model. This initiative aims to meet growing demand for electric vans amid tightening emissions regulations, offering features like modular designs and an easy swap system for various uses. With an initial production capacity of 150,000 units, Kia plans to expand to 300,000 by 2030, targeting key markets such as Germany, the UK, and France.
Stéphane Rossini, head of the Federal Social Insurance Office, resigns after a significant miscalculation of AHV forecasts, remaining until June 2025. Meanwhile, a Federal Supreme Court ruling threatens weekend and evening services at health facilities, and tensions rise as North Korean soldiers are invited to support Russia in Ukraine. In the U.S., Kamala Harris and Donald Trump engage in fierce pre-election attacks, while Turkey responds to an attack on an arms manufacturer with airstrikes against PKK targets.
Coinbase shares are experiencing heightened demand amid uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US election, with investors favoring a potential Trump presidency due to his crypto-friendly stance. Recent data shows a surprising drop in weekly initial claims for US unemployment benefits, which may positively influence market sentiment. The technical outlook suggests that overcoming the $220 mark could lead to further gains, while a fall below $200 might intensify downward pressure.
IG
Novo Nordisk's diabetes drug Ozempic, containing semaglutide, may significantly lower the risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease by 40% to 70% compared to other diabetes medications, according to a recent study. This research highlights the potential of GLP-1 drugs to offer preventive benefits against the memory-robbing condition, which is projected to affect nearly 13 million Americans by 2050. Further clinical trials are needed to confirm these findings and explore the effects of GLP-1s in patients with obesity.
With less than two weeks until the election, a CNBC survey shows a statistical dead heat between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with Trump leading 48%-46% nationally. Economic concerns dominate voter priorities, with Trump holding significant advantages on inflation and the economy, while Harris leads on issues like abortion and climate change. Despite a modest improvement in perceptions of the economy, three-quarters of Americans still feel prices are rising, reflecting ongoing economic anxiety.
As the U.S. presidential election approaches in early November, traders should brace for increased volatility, particularly in the lead-up to the event. Historical trends indicate a strong inverse relationship between the VIX volatility index and the S&P 500, with volatility typically rising before elections and declining afterward, often benefiting the stock market. Risk management strategies, such as shorting the VIX while going long on the S&P, can help investors navigate potential market surprises.
IG
The potential deportation of millions of undocumented migrants could harm the U.S. economy by reducing productivity and filling labor market gaps. Economists warn that protectionist policies, such as tariffs proposed by Trump, may disrupt complex global supply chains and ultimately slow economic growth. Emphasizing the importance of diversity and inclusion, experts argue that migrants are often valuable contributors to the economy, regardless of their legal status.
Wall Street is increasingly anxious as the race tightens between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with projections suggesting Trump could secure a majority in Congress. This potential shift raises concerns over corporate tax cuts and increased national debt, which could lead to rising inflation and disrupt the Federal Reserve's policies. Consequently, bond yields are climbing, signaling investor unease as the favorable trend in stock prices may be at risk.
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The dollar's rally in October is significantly influenced by betting markets that increasingly favor Donald Trump for the upcoming presidential election. Standard Chartered Plc estimates that 60% of the currency's gains this month are tied to these growing wagers on Trump's potential victory on November 5.

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